Fumble

With seconds left on the clock, on their own 10-yard line and down by a fairly sizeable margin, the Democratic leaders of the 20th Congressional District decided to attempt a Hail Mary pass to the end zone in hopes of somehow landing a viable candidate in Washington. But something went dreadfully wrong. The wide receiver stumbled, the quarterback double-clutched, and the football trickled from his fingers to the ground. Now, it’s just a matter of seconds before one of the gorilla-like linemen runs it back for a touchdown.

That heavyweight just happens to be state Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco. The Democrats might as well have ceded the 20th District to the Republicans Sunday, when they announced Scott Murphy as their candidate for the soon-to-be-announced special election.

“A lost job is more than a statistic – it is a family facing the loss of health care benefits, a steady income and a future for their children,” Murphy said in a prepared statement. “The 20th Congressional District needs innovative leadership that will bring smart economic development and good jobs to our communities. That’s what I’ve done in the private sector, and that’s what I’ll do in Congress.”

The Glens Falls venture capitalist was pretty much the party’s last great hope for position, after the other two front-runners dropped out. Both former network anchor Tracy Egan and AFL-CIO director Suzy Ballantyne dropped out of the running late Saturday evening, according to the Post Star. They joined former New York Rangers goalie Mike Richter –the one candidate who could have handily beaten Tedisco –in declining a run for the office.

For the many who don’t know Murphy, he’s the director of Advantage Capital Partners, a venture capital group that manages more than $1 billion of assets. A Harvard grad, he once served as aide to two Missouri governors and once acted as chief executive officer of Small World Software. Some right-leaning blogs are questioning a curious omission from his bio, namely the mention of Baazee.com, an e-Bay clone that was sold to the tune of $50 million.

While Murphy isn’t necessarily a bad candidate, he doesn’t really stand a chance against an established politician who is well-liked in his district, has remained largely unchallenged in state elections, and happens to be enrolled in the party that holds a roughly 90,000 voter advantage in the district. Sure, anything can happen. But to say Murphy is an underdog is a major understatement. Outside of a colossal meltdown in Camp Tedisco, Murphy will soon become a footnote in district history.

So why pick a candidate that’s destined to lose? Well, Murphy has money for one. That means the Dems can save their ducats for races that will certainly require a lot of cash –namely the re-election of Gillibrand in 2010.

The 20th Congressional District is also in flux. There’s a chance it won’t even exist in the near future, depending on regional population trends. Even if it does, house seats come up for election every two years, meaning they’ll be more than ready to challenge for the district in 2010. Perhaps then a better know candidate –or even Murphy himself –will be apt to thwart the somewhat powerful Tedisco.

Also keep in mind Gov. David Paterson hasn’t even called the election yet. That means the absolute earliest a new congressman could take office wouldn’t be until sometime in late March. That gives the victor of the race a paltry 20 months in office. If the governor decides to delay –which he could as a politically strategic move –he might be able to whittle down this number even further.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Tedisco’s Assembly seat is –or was –one of the last Republican bastions in Schenectady County. The GOP will be hard pressed to find anyone capable of winning his district, considering the Democrats are firmly entrenched in both the county and city governments. In fact, the Republicans have been a bit like the red-headed stepchild of Schenectady County politics as of late –they’re beaten often and badly. Tedisco leaving the district will be a godsend for the Dems, who have eyed his seat for many moons.

So it’s tough to say whether the Dems have truly dropped the ball on this one, even though Murphy might as well be bleating lamb being led up to some sacrificial alter. There is undoubtedly some method to all this madness, which should reveal itself in the coming weeks. But in the meantime, it’s safe for residents of the 20th to brace themselves for Congressman Tedisco.